[Anthias Labs] Minimum Reserve Recommendations (10/29/25) (Base)
This report provides minimum reserve recommendations for Moonwell’s core markets on Base. For details on our methodology, please refer to the forum posts linked above. Additionally, this report examines the bad debt incident that occurred within the protocol over the past month.
Summary
| Asset | Recommended Reserves |
|---|---|
| AERO | 400,000* |
| cbBTC | 2.8 |
| cbETH | 9 |
| cbXRP | 20,000 |
| DAI | 900 |
| EURC | 67,000 |
| LBTC | 0.2 |
| MAMO | 600,000 |
| MORPHO | 140,000* |
| rETH | 2 |
| tBTC | 0.2 |
| USDC | 600,000 |
| USDS | 2500 |
| VIRTUAL | 1,810,000* |
| weETH | 6 |
| WELL | 1,800,000 |
| WETH | 320 |
| wrsETH | 1 |
| wstETH | 9 |
*Current reserves should be utilized to cover outstanding bad debt that occurred on 10/10/25, these recommendations reflect the outstanding debt in these markets + current recommendations.
Current Reserves & Auctions
| Asset | Total Reserves | Total Reserves (USD) | Reserves to Auction (tokens) | Reserves to Auction (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AERO | 336348.328 | $301,031.75 | 0 | $0.00 |
| cbBTC | 3.0794 | $349,758.82 | 0.2794 | $31,734.30 |
| cbETH | 9.3894 | $42,098.28 | 0.3894 | $1,745.91 |
| cbXRP | 24290.8947 | $63,763.60 | 4290.8947 | $11,263.60 |
| DAI | 1291.025 | $1,291.03 | 391.025 | $391.03 |
| EURC | 20379.2642 | $23,721.46 | 0 | $0.00 |
| LBTC | 0.1702 | $19,363.37 | 0 | $0.00 |
| MAMO | 127.9121 | $6.91 | 0 | $0.00 |
| MORPHO | 14010.4618 | $28,749.47 | 0 | $0.00 |
| rETH | 2.8382 | $13,241.55 | 0.8382 | $3,910.60 |
| tBTC | 0.0744 | $8,441.32 | 0 | $0.00 |
| USDC | 508514.2248 | $508,514.22 | 0 | $0.00 |
| USDS | 105.8118 | $105.81 | 0 | $0.00 |
| VIRTUAL | 20152.7946 | $28,959.57 | 0 | $0.00 |
| weETH | 6.0063 | $26,391.47 | 0.0063 | $27.68 |
| WELL | 1922714.776 | $34,608.87 | 122714.7756 | $2,208.87 |
| WETH | 336.648 | $1,370,863.65 | 16.648 | $0.00* |
| wrsETH | 0.7834 | $3,370.45 | 0 | $0.00 |
| wstETH | 14.5788 | $72,287.16 | 5.5788 | $27,661.78 |
| Total: $2,896,568.73 | Total: $78,943.77 |
*= an issue with WETH Unwrapper contrcat currently prohibits WETH reserves from being auctioned off.
By auctioning off around ~$80k in reserves, this will result in a staking rate boost of approximately 5.5%.
Reserve Accrual
The table below displays how reserves changed from 9/17/25 to 10/12/25, the previous period between reserve auctions.
| Asset | USD Change | Token Change | From Liquidations | Liquidation % | From Interest | Interest % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AERO | $183,362.45 | 214459 | 183448 | 85.50% | 31011.1 | 14.50% |
| cbBTC | $92,678.28 | 0.8273 | 0.747123 | 90.30% | 0.0801766 | 9.70% |
| cbETH | $17,340.42 | 4.1249 | 3.74906 | 90.90% | 0.37584 | 9.10% |
| cbXRP | $53,635.23 | 21670.8 | 19569.8 | 90.30% | 2100.94 | 9.70% |
| DAI | $2,106.23 | 2108.34 | 0 | 0.00% | 2108.34 | 100.00% |
| EURC | $1,137.06 | 995.672 | 286.327 | 28.80% | 709.345 | 71.20% |
| LBTC | $661.89 | 0.0059 | 0.0045943 | 77.90% | 0.0013057 | 22.10% |
| MORPHO | $18,155.88 | 10996.9 | 9729.93 | 88.50% | 1266.98 | 11.50% |
| rETH | $1,344.45 | 0.3073 | 0.278774 | 90.70% | 0.0285264 | 9.30% |
| tBTC | $6,242.24 | 0.0559 | 0.0506645 | 90.60% | 0.00523545 | 9.40% |
| USDC | $85,502.02 | 85416.6 | 44419 | 52.00% | 40997.6 | 48.00% |
| USDS | $25.13 | 25.1289 | 2.86832 | 11.40% | 22.2606 | 88.60% |
| VIRTUAL | $5,965.71 | 8105.59 | 5438.95 | 67.10% | 2666.64 | 32.90% |
| weETH | $6,173.25 | 1.4983 | 1.36071 | 90.80% | 0.137594 | 9.20% |
| WELL | $7,986.23 | 420328 | 345810 | 82.30% | 74517.9 | 17.70% |
| WETH | $16,026.36 | 4.194 | 2.80274 | 66.80% | 1.39126 | 33.20% |
| wrsETH | $0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| wstETH | $40,684.46 | 8.7533 | 7.95614 | 90.90% | 0.797158 | 9.10% |
| Total: $539,027.89 |
Collateral-at-Risk Snapshot
Snapshot of 30d CaR 10/29/25.
| Token | 30d CAR USD | CAR Tokens | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|
| WETH | $750,159 | 191.81 | 1,391 |
| USDC | $747,081 | 747178.32 | 1,900 |
| CBBTC | $730,571 | 6.62 | 765 |
| WELL | $586,901 | 34139636.82 | 336 |
| AERO | $525,101 | 524067.54 | 1,289 |
| CBETH | $209,739 | 48.72 | 352 |
| CBXRP | $150,845 | 58877.78 | 265 |
| VIRTUAL | $129,218 | 86272.04 | 473 |
| WSTETH | $71,396 | 14.99 | 278 |
| MORPHO | $43,485 | 21888.46 | 242 |
| LBTC | $43,062 | 0.39 | 97 |
| WRSETH | $14,806 | 3.58 | 39 |
| RETH | $11,546 | 2.57 | 126 |
| TBTC | $6,802 | 0.06 | 77 |
| WEETH | $3,446 | 0.82 | 60 |
| EURC | $1,979 | 1705.61 | 220 |
| USDS | $227 | 226.94 | 70 |
| DAI | $6 | 5.86 | 43 |
| USDBC | $0 | 0.40 | 28 |
Bad Debt
On October 10, 2025, during a flash crash event, an attacker exploited price oracle discrepancies on Moonwell. The oracle was reporting significantly lower prices for assets like VIRTUAL, AERO, and MORPHO compared to their actual trading prices on DEXs.
The attack unfolded in multiple atomic transactions: The attacker initiated flash loans for USDC and cbBTC, then used these assets as collateral (benefiting from their high collateral factors) to borrow the underpriced tokens. They immediately sold these borrowed assets on DEXs at market prices, receiving more USDC and cbBTC than originally flash loaned. After repaying the flash loans, they pocketed the difference as profit. Throughout this process, they strategically withdrew the artificially created collateral positions whenever possible.
When prices recovered following the initial crash, liquidators moved quickly to repay outstanding debts, primarily focusing on AERO positions. However, the debt values rebounded too rapidly (within minutes) outpacing liquidation efforts. This left the protocol with substantial bad debt, outlined in the following table
| Asset | Debt (tokens) | Debt (USD) | Current Reserves (Tokens) | Additional Reserves Required (Tokens) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIRTUAL | 1,786,654.7446 | $2,623,524 | 20,152.7946 | 1,766,501.95 |
| MORPHO | 118,970.7415 | $243,998.70 | 14,010.4618 | 104,960.2797 |
| AERO | 254,067.7596 | $231,292.78 | 336,348.328 | 0 |
| Total: $3,098,815.48 |
The total bad debt now surpasses $3 million. When the crash initially occurred, the outstanding debt was valued at approximately $1.8 million. However, subsequent price appreciation, particularly in VIRTUAL, which has risen over 90% in the past week, has caused the dollar value of this bad debt to increase significantly. We urge the DAO to take action to address the bad debt, as it continues to grow due to accruing interest and ongoing appreciation.