[Gauntlet] - Base/Optimism/Moonbeam/Moonriver Monthly Recommendations - 2025-03-18

Base

Simple Summary

Risk Parameters

A proposal to adjust the following risk parameters:

Risk Parameter Current Value Recommended Value
WETH Reserve Factor 5% 10%
weETH Supply Cap 2,800 4,000

*Cap Recommendations will be implemented via Guardian

IR Parameters

A proposal to adjust USDC’s IR curve:

USDC IR Parameters Current Recommended
Base 0 0
Kink 0.9 0.9
Multiplier 0.0615 0.0565
Jump Multiplier 9 9

Rationale

Interest Rate (IR) Parameters

USDC

Gauntlet suggests reducing borrowing APRs for stablecoins by an additional ~50bps to align with market conditions, as the SSR has recently dropped from 8.75% to 6.5%. This adjustment helps maintain borrowing rates that are competitive with the broader market, ensuring continued demand while aligning with current liquidity conditions and interest rate trends.

Recommended USDC IR Curve

Projected APRs for USDC

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 5.08% 4.12%
100 95.08% 85.58%

Current APRs for USDC

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 5.53% 4.48%
100 95.53% 85.98%

WETH

Gauntlet recommends maintaining the current interest rate (IR) settings for WETH at this time. While borrow rates have been increasing recently, utilization has consistently remained below the kink threshold, indicating that borrowing demand has not yet reached a level that would justify a further increase to the rate parameters.

Reserve Factors (RF)

We recommend aligning the reserve factor of WETH on Base with those on Optimism, by increasing it from 5% to 10%. This adjustment is expected to have a minimal impact on the spread between the borrow rate and supply rate, which will remain relatively thin even after the increase. The proposed change will increase the protocol’s reserve accruals, strengthening the ability to absorb potential losses while maintaining competitive returns for suppliers.

Projected WETH APRs after RF Adjustment

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 1.21% 0.98%
100 81.21% 73.09%

Current WETH APRs

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 1.21% 1.04%
100 81.21% 77.15%

Spread between borrow rate and supply rate will remain thin after change.

Cap Recommendations

Gauntlet will use Cap Guardian to increase the Supply Cap for weETH.

Asset Chain Current Supply Cap Recommended Supply Cap Current Borrow Cap Recommended Borrow Cap
weETH Base 2,800 4,000 700 No Change

Utilization

Top Positions

Top 3 positions account for ~80% total weETH supply and they are predominately recursive. The current Collateral Factor incorporates sufficient buffers to withstand substantial price drawdowns against the dollar for other positions.

Liquidity

Gauntlet continuously monitors cap utilization and provides timely recommendations. You can find our latest cap recommendations here.

Optimism

Simple Summary

Risk Parameters

A proposal to adjust the following risk parameters:

Risk Parameter Current Value Recommended Value
VELO Collateral Factor 65% 63%
VELO Supply Cap 42,000,000 68,000,000

*Cap Recommendations will be implemented via Guardian

IR Parameters

A proposal to adjust IR parameters for USDC, USDT, DAI:

USDC IR Parameters Current Recommended
Base 0 0
Kink 0.9 0.9
Multiplier 0.0615 0.0565
Jump Multiplier 9 9
USDT IR Parameters Current Recommended
Base 0 0
Kink 0.9 0.9
Multiplier 0.0615 0.0565
Jump Multiplier 9 9
DAI IR Parameters Current Recommended
Base 0 0
Kink 0.9 0.9
Multiplier 0.0615 0.0565
Jump Multiplier 9 9

Rationale

Interest Rate (IR) Parameters

USDC, DAI and USDT

For the same reasons cited in the Base market, we recommend decreasing the borrow APR at kink by an additional ~50bps to mirror demand for leverage.

Recommended USDC, DAI and USDT IR Curve

Projected APRs for USDC, DAI and USDT

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 5.08% 4.12%
100 95.08% 85.58%

Current APRs for USDC, DAI and USDT

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 5.53% 4.48%
100 95.53% 85.98%

WETH

For the same reasons cited in the Base market, we recommend maintaining the current IR setting.

Collateral Factor

Gauntlet recommends implementing a risk-off adjustment for VELO by reducing its Collateral Factor (CF) from 65% to 63%. This proactive measure is aimed at enhancing risk management by increasing the buffer available in the event of liquidations, thereby reducing potential protocol exposure to excessive slippage.

With a Collateral Factor of 63%, the protocol gains a larger risk buffer, improving its ability to absorb the impact of liquidating the top 10 positions without triggering substantial market slippage.

User Address Total Supply Balance (USD) Total Borrow Balance (USD) Initial Borrow Usage New Borrow Usage Initial Health Factor New Health Factor
0xf6365e34f8abdfca311da07921616acf0397b1d7 4960.45 3138.74 0.9735 1.0044 1.027 0.996

There would be a total of $3K liquidatable borrows due to the CF decreases. Data as of March 19, 2025.

Cap Recommendations

Gauntlet will use Cap Guardian to increase the Supply Cap for VELO. A combination of a slightly lower Collateral Factor and a higher supply cap provides a balanced approach—preserving lending efficiency while reinforcing risk safeguards. This strategy allows for continued growth of VELO within the protocol while ensuring that systemic risks remain mitigated.

Asset Chain Current Supply Cap Recommended Supply Cap Current Borrow Cap Recommended Borrow Cap
VELO Optimism 42,000,000 68,000,000 20,000,000 No Change

Gauntlet continuously monitors cap utilization and provides timely recommendations. You can find our latest cap recommendations here.

Moonbeam

Simple Summary

Risk Parameters

A proposal to adjust the following risk parameters:

Risk Parameter Current Value Recommended Value
WGLMR Borrow Cap 8.00M 6M
USDC.wh Borrow Cap 300.00K 180K
xcUSDC Borrow Cap 300.00K 240K
xcUSDT Borrow Cap 300.00K 150K
xcDOT Borrow Cap 110.00K 75K
FRAX Borrow Cap 40.00K 20K
WETH.wh Borrow Cap 15.00 10
WBTC.wh Borrow Cap 0.10 No Change
USDC.wh Collateral Factor 32% 27%
WBTC.wh Collateral Factor 11% 9%
WETH.wh Collateral Factor 28% 27%

*Cap Recommendations will be implemented via Guardian

Rationale

Caps

Gauntlet recommends reducing borrow caps for assets on Moonbeam to simplify management and ensure more efficient protocol maintenance.

Asset Current Borrow Cap Average Borrow Cap Usage (Past Week) Recommended Borrow Cap
WGLMR 8.00M 83.68% 6M
USDC.wh 300.00K 65.97% 180K
xcUSDC 300.00K 79.72% 240K
xcUSDT 300.00K 49.46% 150K
xcDOT 110.00K 73.09% 75K
FRAX 40.00K 60.15% 20K
WETH.wh 15.00 66.91% 10
WBTC.wh 0.10 144.77% No Change

Collateral Factor

We continue recommending a reduction in Collateral Factors across assets as follows.

  • Decrease USDC.wh Collateral Factor from 32% to 27%
  • Decrease WBTC.wh Collateral Factor from 11% to 9%
  • Decrease WETH.wh Collateral Factor from 28% to 27%

The proposed reduction in CFs will trigger liquidations of positions totaling ~$4K in supplies and ~$500 in borrows. The positions poised to be liquidated are listed below.

User Address Total Supply Balance (USD) Total Borrow Balance (USD) Initial Borrow Usage New Borrow Usage Initial Health Factor New Health Factor
0x799d95f59956747522666c30975821d4cbdb8b63 4205.68 446.055 0.8551 1.0149 1.169 0.985
0x51898c765dbe77acbdf335aaddcfb0fa022768eb 559.31 56.6256 0.8461 1.0126 1.182 0.988

Moonriver

Gauntlet does not recommend any risk parameters for the Moonriver market at this time.

Minimum Reserves Recommendations

Base

Recommendations

Following up on the minimum reserves required for each asset in the Moonwell Base markets before auctioning excess reserves for WELL, Gauntlet has updated the minimum reserve thresholds below. These adjustments reduce the scaling factor to 10 times the maximum historical VaR. Further adjustments to the minimum reserves will follow based on market conditions and historical VaR.

Minimum Reserves (Token) Minimum Reserves (USD)
WETH 7.4K $2.36M
USDC 2.20M $2.20M
cbBTC 369.43 $1.43M
cbETH 183.64 $412.9K
wstETH 171.85 $407.1K
AERO 610.4K $388.6K
EURC 241.9K $260.5K
LBTC 206.99 $91.0K
weETH 32.70 $67.7K
tBTC 90.96 $43.2K
rETH 131.11 $35.2K
WELL 1.27M $34.9K
VIRTUAL 39.2K $34.5K
wrsETH 16.22 $29.1K
USDS 8.1K $8.1K
DAI 2.0K $2.0K
USDbC 0.00 $0.00

Supporting Data

Optimism

Recommendations

Gauntlet proposes the following minimum reserve thresholds for assets on Optimism. These recommendations incorporate a scaling factor of 10 times the maximum historical VaR. Future adjustments to the minimum reserves will be made in response to market conditions and historical VaR trends.

Minimum Reserves (Token) Minimum Reserves (USD)
USDC 839.8K $839.8K
WETH 277.00 $622.2K
USDT 519.6K $519.4K
wstETH 111.80 $299.7K
DAI 110.8K $110.8K
OP 50.4K $49.8K
VELO 773.9K $46.9K
weETH 18.52 $44.1K
rETH 16.82 $42.5K
wrsETH 16.34 $38.0K
cbETH 0.00 $0.00
WBTC 0.00 $0.00

Supporting Data

Risk Dashboard

The community should use Gauntlet’s Moonwell Base Risk Dashboard to better understand the updated parameter suggestions and general market risk in Moonwell BASE.

Methodology

This set of parameter updates seeks to maintain the overall risk tolerance of the protocol while making risk trade-offs between specific assets.

Gauntlet’s parameter recommendations are driven by an optimization function that balances 3 core metrics: insolvencies, liquidations, and borrow usage. Parameter recommendations seek to optimize for this objective function. Our agent-based simulations use a wide array of varied input data that changes on a daily basis (including but not limited to asset volatility, asset correlation, asset collateral usage, DEX / CEX liquidity, trading volume, expected market impact of trades, and liquidator behavior). Gauntlet’s simulations tease out complex relationships between these inputs that cannot be simply expressed as heuristics. As such, the input metrics we show below can help understand why some of the param recs have been made but should not be taken as the only reason for recommendation. To learn more about our methodologies, please see the Helpful Links section at the bottom.

Quick Links

Please click below to learn about our methodologies:

Gauntlet Parameter Recommendation Methodology
Gauntlet Model Methodology

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