[Gauntlet] - Base/Optimism/Moonbeam/Moonriver Monthly Recommendations - 2025-02-19

Base

Simple Summary

IR Parameters

A proposal to adjust WETH and USDC’s IR curve:

USDC IR Parameters Current Recommended
Base 0 0
Kink 0.9 0.9
Multiplier 0.067 0.0615
Jump Multiplier 9 9
WETH IR Parameters Current Recommended
Base 0 0
Kink 0.9 0.9
Multiplier 0.01 0.0135
Jump Multiplier 8 8

Rationale

Interest Rate (IR) Parameters

USDC

Gauntlet suggests reducing borrowing APRs for stablecoins by an additional ~55bps to align with market conditions, as the SSR has recently dropped from 12.50% to 8.75% and is expected to decline further. This adjustment helps maintain borrowing rates that are competitive with the broader market, ensuring continued demand while aligning with current liquidity conditions and interest rate trends.

Recommended USDC IR Curve

Projected APRs for USDC

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 5.53% 4.48%
100 95.53% 85.98%

Current APRs for USDC

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 6.03% 4.88%
100 96.03% 86.43%

WETH

WETH utilization has stabilized around the kink. Gauntlet recommends increasing borrowing APRs by approximately 30bps to better align with broader market rates. This adjustment would help ensure WETH remains competitive on both the borrow and supply sides. We will continue to closely monitor utilization trends and market conditions, making further adjustments as needed to enhance competitiveness.

Recommended WETH IR Curve

Projected APRs for WETH

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 1.21% 1.04%
100 81.21% 77.15%

Current APRs for WETH

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 0.90% 0.77%
100 80.9% 76.8%

cbBTC

cbBTC interest rates have remained largely unchanged since the last adjustment, indicating consistently low borrow and supply demand. Despite previous rate modifications, utilization has not shown significant improvement, suggesting limited market appetite at current conditions. Given this, Gauntlet recommends keeping the current cbBTC interest rate settings the same for now. Rather than making further adjustments, we suggest monitoring market trends and liquidity dynamics to assess whether external factors, such as broader market conditions or competing lending platforms, are influencing demand. Future adjustments can be considered if there are meaningful shifts in utilization or demand signals.

Cap Recommendations

Gauntlet continuously monitors cap utilization and provides timely recommendations. You can find our latest cap recommendations here.

Optimism

Simple Summary

Risk Parameters

A proposal to adjust 3 risk parameters:

Risk Parameter Current Value Recommended Value
USDC Reserve Factor 5% 10%
USDT Reserve Factor 5% 10%
DAI Reserve Factor 5% 10%

IR Parameters

A proposal to adjust IR parameters for USDC, USDT, DAI and WETH:

USDC IR Parameters Current Recommended
Base 0 0
Kink 0.9 0.9
Multiplier 0.067 0.0615
Jump Multiplier 9 9
USDT IR Parameters Current Recommended
Base 0 0
Kink 0.9 0.9
Multiplier 0.067 0.0615
Jump Multiplier 9 9
DAI IR Parameters Current Recommended
Base 0 0
Kink 0.9 0.9
Multiplier 0.067 0.0615
Jump Multiplier 9 9
WETH IR Parameters Current Recommended
Base 0 0
Kink 0.9 0.9
Multiplier 0.01 0.0135
Jump Multiplier 8 8

Rationale

Interest Rate (IR) Parameters

USDC, DAI and USDT

For the same reasons cited in the Base market, we recommend decreasing the borrow APR at kink by an additional 55bps to mirror demand for leverage.

Recommended USDC, DAI and USDT IR Curve

Projected APRs for USDC, DAI and USDT

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 5.53% 4.48%
100 95.53% 85.98%

Current APRs for USDC, DAI and USDT

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 6.03% 4.88%
100 96.03% 86.43%

WETH

For the same reasons cited in the Base market, we recommend increasing the borrow APR at kink by an additional 30bps.

Projected APRs for WETH

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 1.21% 0.98%
100 81.21% 73.09%

Current APRs for WETH

Utilization Borrow APR Supply APR
0 0 0
kink 0.90% 0.73%
100 80.9% 72.81%

Reserve Factors (RF)

We recommend aligning the reserve factor of stablecoins on Optimism with those on Base, by increasing it from 5% to 10%. This adjustment is expected to increase daily reserve growth by approximately 150%, assuming the same utilization level.

Cap Recommendations

Gauntlet continuously monitors cap utilization and provides timely recommendations. You can find our latest cap recommendations here.

Moonbeam

Simple Summary

Risk Parameters

A proposal to adjust the following risk parameters:

Risk Parameter Current Value Recommended Value
WGLMR Borrow Cap 10M 8M
USDC.wh Borrow Cap 800K 300K
xcUSDC Borrow Cap 750K 300K
xcUSDT Borrow Cap 750K 300K
xcDOT Borrow Cap 120K 110K
FRAX Borrow Cap 60K 40K
WETH.wh Borrow Cap 30 15
FRAX Collateral Factor 55% 49%
USDC.wh Collateral Factor 36% 32%
WGLMR Collateral Factor 56% 55%
xcDOT Reserve Factor 50% 20%

*Cap Recommendations will be implemented via Guardian

Rationale

Caps

Gauntlet recommends reducing borrow caps for assets on Moonbeam to simplify management and ensure more efficient protocol maintenance.

Asset Current Borrow Cap Average Borrow Cap Usage (Last 7D) Recommended Borrow Cap
WGLMR 10M 71.31% 8M
USDC.wh 800K 30.85% 300K
xcUSDC 750K 31.59% 300K
xcUSDT 750K 21.22% 300K
xcDOT 120K 81.06% 110K
FRAX 60K 50.92% 40K
WETH.wh 30 40.97% 15
WBTC.wh 0.10 146.48% No Change

Collateral Factor

We continue recommending a reduction in Collateral Factors across assets as follows.

  • Decrease FRAX Collateral Factor from 55% to 49%
  • Decrease USDC.wh Collateral Factor from 36% to 32%
  • Decrease WGLMR Collateral Factor from 56% to 55%

The proposed reduction in CFs will trigger liquidations of positions totaling ~$100 in supplies and ~$50 in borrows. The positions poised to be liquidated are listed below.

User Address Total Supply Balance (USD) Total Borrow Balance (USD) Initial Borrow Usage New Borrow Usage Initial Health Factor New Health Factor
0xb28662425e6a01e68e6d8ef6635c1b90311a9401 55.3098 19.0647 0.9575 1.0772 1.044 0.928
0x440fac0b95b15b04093d4448c38a58956765d6ac 33.876 18.6553 0.9768 1.0013 1.024 0.999
0x810055eb73d5f5fbd13b6a79df3294a30a0a86a1 23.5692 12.3097 0.9496 1.0659 1.053 0.938

Reserve Factor

We recommend reducing the reserve factor for xcDOT to address rising utilization, which is pushing up borrowing rates and accelerating the accumulation of interest on bad debt. Lowering the reserve factor to 20% is expected to increase the supply APR at the kink by approximately 2%, helping to incentivize additional supply.

Moonriver

Gauntlet does not recommend any risk parameters for the Moonriver market at this time.

Minimum Reserves

Following up on the minimum reserves required for each asset in the Moonwell Base markets before auctioning excess reserves for WELL, Gauntlet has updated the minimum reserve thresholds below. These adjustments reduce the scaling factor to 20 times the maximum historical VaR. Further adjustments to the minimum reserves will follow based on market conditions and historical VaR.

Symbol Minimum Reserves (Token) Minimum Reserves (USD)
VIRTUAL 65.3K 81.7K
USDS 12.2K 12.2K
tBTC 0.7 65.1K
LBTC 1.4 137.4K
WELL 2.1M 65.1K
USDC 3.3M 3.3M
DAI 4.7K 4.7K
EURC 354.0K 371.4K
cbBTC 22.6 2.2M
wrsETH 18.3 50.6K
WETH 1.5K 4.0M
cbETH 241.5 700.6K
weETH 41.6 117.3K
rETH 20.2 60.4K
wstETH 217.4 690.7K
AERO 1.0M 835.3K

While AERO’s current reserves are near the required minimum, Gauntlet recommends continuing to accumulate reserves until April to meet the one-year buffer requirement before auctioning any excess AERO reserves for WELL.

Risk Dashboard

The community should use Gauntlet’s Moonwell Base Risk Dashboard to better understand the updated parameter suggestions and general market risk in Moonwell BASE.

Methodology

This set of parameter updates seeks to maintain the overall risk tolerance of the protocol while making risk trade-offs between specific assets.

Gauntlet’s parameter recommendations are driven by an optimization function that balances 3 core metrics: insolvencies, liquidations, and borrow usage. Parameter recommendations seek to optimize for this objective function. Our agent-based simulations use a wide array of varied input data that changes on a daily basis (including but not limited to asset volatility, asset correlation, asset collateral usage, DEX / CEX liquidity, trading volume, expected market impact of trades, and liquidator behavior). Gauntlet’s simulations tease out complex relationships between these inputs that cannot be simply expressed as heuristics. As such, the input metrics we show below can help understand why some of the param recs have been made but should not be taken as the only reason for recommendation. To learn more about our methodologies, please see the Helpful Links section at the bottom.

Quick Links

Please click below to learn about our methodologies:

Gauntlet Parameter Recommendation Methodology
Gauntlet Model Methodology
Gauntlet Minimum Reserves Methodology

By approving this proposal, you agree that any services provided by Gauntlet shall be governed by the terms of service available at gauntlet.network/tos.

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